This stock has been in a down trend despite all the rebuttal from the company. The only way you make money in Lehman for the past few months is to stay short or buy puts. If you own the stock or bought calls all you have done is lose money. Just like Bear Stearns the rumours were denied till the company went under.
Stocks just don't go down at this rate just based on rumours, there is some real selling going on by well informed players.
I guess the lesson from Bear Sterns is that the well informed players and the market makers have refined their tactics and what we are seeing here is a controlled wipe out. Just look at the way the stock is traded it stays around 20's for a while and they even took it upwards of 24 all within a week, to create a false sense of hope among the uninformed players.
Look at the financials, this company is levergaed 27 to 1, it just does not take that much to implode with this kind of levergae.
If you are ever tempted to buy, please don't catch a following knife. It is okay to miss the first 10, 20, 30 , 40 percent move, if this thing is really going to go up. It saves you from losing all your money in an implosion.
Just look at Etrade, the rumours and the talking heads were cheer leaders till the stock imploded.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Lehman Brothers - Lottery Play
The rumours surrounding Lehman is getting too heated up, so hear is a lottery play
Buy Lehman Brothers April $20 strike price put for $.75 - 10 contracts
Buy 10 contracts of LYH PD at $.75.
Note: This is a lottery play so watch it carefully, Volatility can evaporate very fast if the downward trend reverses -
Buy Lehman Brothers April $20 strike price put for $.75 - 10 contracts
Buy 10 contracts of LYH PD at $.75.
Note: This is a lottery play so watch it carefully, Volatility can evaporate very fast if the downward trend reverses -
Monday, March 10, 2008
SOLF buy March 10 strike 20 contracts Puts
Buy March $10 strike price PUT, 20 contracts @ 1.00
Buy 20 QFG OB at 1.00
Buy 20 QFG OB at 1.00
Friday, March 7, 2008
Sell SOLF (SOLARFUN) June 10 put
Sell Solarfun (SOLF) June strike price $10 Put @ $2.10
Sell QFG RB 10 contracts @ $2.10
The premium is just too rich to ignore.
Trade with care as this market is getting into uncharted waters
Sell QFG RB 10 contracts @ $2.10
The premium is just too rich to ignore.
Trade with care as this market is getting into uncharted waters
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Lottery Play - Google - over 200% return
Time to take some off the table - the google March 400 put bought at .85cent first recommended on Thursday Feb 28 is now trading at about $3.00. Time to sell at least half and the let the rest ride.
Risk management and not getting to greedy is the key to success in investing and trading.
Risk management and not getting to greedy is the key to success in investing and trading.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Hot AS A Pistol - click on the link
I’ve just re–discovered a YouTube video that reveals the secret to success in your investment life - or anything else in life.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek1iIOTsiRo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek1iIOTsiRo
Thursday, February 28, 2008
HURC - Bull on Steriods
Hurco Companies Inc --- HURC up $12.00 or 35% for the day on solid earnings growth.
Lottery Play - Google
If you belief Google is in a down turn hen here is a lottery play
Buy Goog March 400 strike Put for .85
trade:
Buy 10 contracts GOP OT @ .85
Reason behind trade: If google falls even $10 then implied Volatility would spike and as such the put would be worth much more. Google does not have to get to $400 but has to fall for the put to increase in value. If you pick this trade then make sure you put in tight stops after a 20% gain. Put a sell stop if put falls to .60 cents.
Be careful out there and always trade with a plan.
Buy Goog March 400 strike Put for .85
trade:
Buy 10 contracts GOP OT @ .85
Reason behind trade: If google falls even $10 then implied Volatility would spike and as such the put would be worth much more. Google does not have to get to $400 but has to fall for the put to increase in value. If you pick this trade then make sure you put in tight stops after a 20% gain. Put a sell stop if put falls to .60 cents.
Be careful out there and always trade with a plan.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Forest Wheeler - FWLT -- Buying Puts
FWLT missed their earnings and stated the only way to keep up growth is through acquisition. Buying the April $70 strike price put. I think the trend is down for now.
Buy FWLT April 70 strike price put - Buy 10 contracts UFB PN @ 8.30 (FWLT April $70 strike price put)
Buy FWLT April 70 strike price put - Buy 10 contracts UFB PN @ 8.30 (FWLT April $70 strike price put)
Sell calls on home builders - Ryland Group
It seems irrattional exuberance is hitting the home builders this morning. I am taking this opportunity to initiate the following trades
Sell Short Calls On Ryland Group Inc (RYL)
Trade--- Sell 20 contracts of Ryland March 30 strike Calls
Sell short Ryland March 30 Strike price - Sell Short 20 contracts of Ryland March 30 strike price - 20 contracts short RYL CF @ 2.4
Sell Short Calls On Ryland Group Inc (RYL)
Trade--- Sell 20 contracts of Ryland March 30 strike Calls
Sell short Ryland March 30 Strike price - Sell Short 20 contracts of Ryland March 30 strike price - 20 contracts short RYL CF @ 2.4
Buy more Eastman Kodak - EK
Buy more Eastman Kodak April 20 calls
Buy 30 EKDD at .45
This brings my total holdings to 60 contracts at an average price of .55
Buy 30 EKDD at .45
This brings my total holdings to 60 contracts at an average price of .55
Buy more shares of Solarfun (SOLF)
Buying more shares of Solarfun as I believe Bank of America downgrade is rather late to the party. Also Citi analyst has a research report out which is positive on the sector.
Buy 1000 SOLF @ 12.85
Buy 1000 SOLF @ 12.85
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Sell Google Put for a 42% gain
Sell April $400 put for $10.10 for a 42% gain. Rational is that a 42% gain for a day is just enough for me and in line with my discipline of taking my profits when I am up more than 20% for a day.
Buy Google April Put
I think google is finally cracking - Buying the April 400 strike Put
Buy Google Put - April $400 strike Put - Buy GOPPT @ 7.10
FYI ---
Google Shares are getting hit early Tuesday after comScore's report on a startlingly big decline in paid click growth. Google's January paid click growth was flat on a year-over-year basis, down 7% from December and down 12% from the fourth quarter. UBS cut its earnings estimate and price target in response.
The comScore data provide further evidence that Google is not recession proof and it looks like somebody got wind of this report as GOOG shares were notably weak Monday in an up tape. This decline probably represents an opportunity for believers in Google's long-term story but the short-term pain isn't likely over yet.
Buy Google Put - April $400 strike Put - Buy GOPPT @ 7.10
FYI ---
Google Shares are getting hit early Tuesday after comScore's report on a startlingly big decline in paid click growth. Google's January paid click growth was flat on a year-over-year basis, down 7% from December and down 12% from the fourth quarter. UBS cut its earnings estimate and price target in response.
The comScore data provide further evidence that Google is not recession proof and it looks like somebody got wind of this report as GOOG shares were notably weak Monday in an up tape. This decline probably represents an opportunity for believers in Google's long-term story but the short-term pain isn't likely over yet.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Buy EAstman Kodak - EK
Ratings out look raised to stable -
Buying April calls- strike price 20 at .65 cents 30 contracts.
Buy 30 EKDD @ .65
Buying April calls- strike price 20 at .65 cents 30 contracts.
Buy 30 EKDD @ .65
Solarfun (SOLF) - Time to Buy
Solarfun (SOLF) has a long painful downturn since hitting an all time high of $40 a little over six weeks ago. With the stock having dropped more than 70% since the all time high I think it is time to get back in.
Buying 1000 shares SOLF at 13.35.
Fundamentals still seem to be in place and if the company reports better numbers this coming quarter I expect a big bounce from current levels.
Buying 1000 shares SOLF at 13.35.
Fundamentals still seem to be in place and if the company reports better numbers this coming quarter I expect a big bounce from current levels.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Close SOLF and EK trade
Closed March SOLF 17.50 strike for 1.50 for a 30% return (10 Contracts)- buy back the sold call
Closed March EK 20 strike call for .60 for a 20% return (10 Contracts)- buy back the sold call
Closed March EK 20 strike call for .60 for a 20% return (10 Contracts)- buy back the sold call
Intraday update - Crocs trade (Crox)
I am buying crocs Inc, CROX - the calls - This is the trade
Buy Crox June call strike price 28 for 8.20 - 5 contracts
This is a mattress MBAfolio play - so standby for an update in due course.
Buy Crox June call strike price 28 for 8.20 - 5 contracts
This is a mattress MBAfolio play - so standby for an update in due course.
What is MBAFOLIO
The goal of mbafolio is to bring to readers diffrent investment strategies and what type of returns they are generating. Throught out my investment career I have come to the simple recognition that there are different investment stratgegies that can be adopted and it just does not make sense for investors to just stick to one stratagy. So what are some of the stratagies and the accompanying folios (Think of a Folio as the asset purchased or sold for a particular strategy). Strategies would be as following -
1) Buy Stock
2)Sell stock short
3)Buy calls
4)Sell Calls
5)Sell put
6)Buy put
7)Calendar Spreads
8)Iron Candor
9)Covered Calls
10)Mattress play
Well today is Tuesday 02/19/2008 - S&P and Dow futures were up over 12 and120 pts pre open respectively and the we opened with the dow up over 135pts.
Our MBAfolio stratgey this morning was to sell calls on selected issues that we though had been over priced during the early morning run -up. We sold SOLF March 17.50 calls at 2.10 during the morning. We also sold Eastman Kodak march 20 strike price calls at .75. We are looking for a 15% return to cover these calls,.
MBAfolio - Stratgey - ( Sell Calls)
SOLF ( Solarfun) march 17.50 strike Call - sold 10 contracts at 2.10
EK (Eastman Kodak) March 20 strike call - sold 10 contracts at .75
If you get the above trades in the (short call Mbafolio) cover for a 15% gain -
SOLF cover at 1.8 or below based on your risk tolorance
EK cover at .60 or below based on your risk tolorance.
Place stops at a 5% lost.
Happy investing and trading.
1) Buy Stock
2)Sell stock short
3)Buy calls
4)Sell Calls
5)Sell put
6)Buy put
7)Calendar Spreads
8)Iron Candor
9)Covered Calls
10)Mattress play
Well today is Tuesday 02/19/2008 - S&P and Dow futures were up over 12 and120 pts pre open respectively and the we opened with the dow up over 135pts.
Our MBAfolio stratgey this morning was to sell calls on selected issues that we though had been over priced during the early morning run -up. We sold SOLF March 17.50 calls at 2.10 during the morning. We also sold Eastman Kodak march 20 strike price calls at .75. We are looking for a 15% return to cover these calls,.
MBAfolio - Stratgey - ( Sell Calls)
SOLF ( Solarfun) march 17.50 strike Call - sold 10 contracts at 2.10
EK (Eastman Kodak) March 20 strike call - sold 10 contracts at .75
If you get the above trades in the (short call Mbafolio) cover for a 15% gain -
SOLF cover at 1.8 or below based on your risk tolorance
EK cover at .60 or below based on your risk tolorance.
Place stops at a 5% lost.
Happy investing and trading.
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